China's long-term economic growth prospects 

Feb 2017

China is currently undergoing a transition from an export- and investment-driven economy to one that is consumption and services oriented.

Nonetheless, fixed investment remains a key driver of China’s economic growth for the moment. In 2016, fixed investment steadily rose to a new high of RMB 59.6 trillion (US$8.7 trillion), accounting for around 80% of total GDP, thanks to government’s strong push for infrastructure investment. This trend is likely to continue in the coming years as urbanisation moves ahead and new government initiatives are rolled out, such as the Belt and Road, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster, Yangtze River Economic Belt and International Industrial Capacity Cooperation initiatives. Investment is also a powerful tool to help maintain an average GDP growth rate of around 6.5% in order to achieve the goal of doubling GDP and GDP per capita by 2020 (relative to 2010) as set out in the 13th Five-Year Plan.

As part of the World in 2050 report, this article provides the economic outlook for various sectors in China going forward.

Contacts
Frank Lyn
China and Hong Kong Markets Leader
Beijing
Tel: +[86] (10) 6533 2388 Email
Elton Huang
Senior Partner
Shanghai
Tel: +[86] (21) 2323 3029 Email
Allan Zhang
Chief Economist
Beijing
Tel: +[86] (10) 6533 7280 Email